Christmas business 2025: Why 750 million parcels won't trigger euphoria — and what that means for retailers & shippers

The Christmas season is traditionally the most important time for retailers and parcel logistics. Black Friday, Cyber ​​Week, and the weeks leading up to Christmas Eve generate enormous parcel volumes every year. However, the outlook for 2025 is more subdued than in previous years: The industry expects moderate growth, rising costs, and a significant market shift towards B2C.

For retailers, e-commerce shops and specialized shipping service providers like your brands, this means: seize opportunities, understand risks and optimize processes early on.

Overall market 2024/2025: Growth, but clearly slowing down

Despite a challenging annual environment, the German CEP (courier, express and parcel services) market remained stable in 2024:

• Approximately 4,29 billion shipments were processed (approx. +2,8% compared to 2023).

• Industry revenue rose to approximately 27,6 billion euros (approx. +4%).

• The parcel delivery industry employed over 266.000 people – a low single-digit increase.

Many of these trends will continue in 2025. The market will grow – but significantly less dynamically than a few years ago. Reasons for this include economic uncertainties, higher cost structures, and an increasingly saturated online market.

Structural change: B2C continues to grow, B2B is shrinking

One of the most important developments concerns the distribution of shipment types:

• B2C shipments (i.e., packages to private customers) recently grew by around 5–6%.

• B2B shipments declined, in some cases by 1–2%.

• Overall, B2C shipments now account for approximately 60% of all parcel volumes.

This trend will continue into 2025. Reasons:

• Shift in consumer habits towards online retail

• Subdued willingness to purchase and invest in the industrial sector

• Structural changes in supply chains and procurement

• Growing importance of international direct-to-consumer models

For retailers and platforms, this means: customer-oriented shipping models, transparent prices and fast delivery times are more important than ever.

Outlook for Christmas 2025: No records – but high strain

The industry expects the following for the key months of November and December 2025:

• Around 750 million packages – an increase of only 1–2%

• Of these, approximately 450 million are B2C shipments.

• An average of 9 million packages daily

• On peak days, 20–21 million packages per day

This means that parcel volumes will remain high – but without the record increases hoped for in previous years.

To manage the burden, logistics experts are planning, among other things:

• up to 20.000 additional seasonal workers

• approximately 17.000 additional vehicles

• longer sorting times and extended shifts

• Increased use of parcel shops, parcel lockers and alternative delivery methods

The industry is prepared – however, December remains a high-risk period for shippers.

Stress factors and market problems 2025

Several factors dampen the outlook:

1. Economic uncertainty

High consumer prices, rising energy costs and an uncertain consumer climate are leading many people to shop more cautiously.

2. Rising operating costs

• Wages in logistics are rising

• Energy costs remain structurally high

• Transport and toll costs increase the strain on margins.

• Sustainability and emissions targets require investment.

3. Market saturation

The massive surge in parcel deliveries during the pandemic years is noticeably leveling off. Many households have stabilized their shopping habits without experiencing a significant increase again.

4. Decline in B2B

Fewer industrial orders mean lower volumes – an additional brake on overall growth.

Long-term development: Growth until 2030 – but only moderate

Forecasts for the coming years show:

• Annual shipment growth of 3–3,5%

• an increase to approximately 5,2 billion packages by 2030

• disproportionate growth in

  • international broadcasts

  • Express and same-day services

  • Out-of-home deliveries

This means that the parcel market will remain a growth market in the long term, but no longer at the double-digit rate as before.

Opportunities for retailers and shippers: What matters now

For your brands – especially those focusing on international shipping, customs clearance in seconds and consistently calculable prices – clear areas of action emerge:

1. Expand B2C focus

Customer-oriented shipping solutions, clearly calculable prices and fast processing will be more important than ever in 2025.

2. Efficient shipping processes

Less volume growth means: Margin is generated through efficiency.
Important factors include:

• optimized packaging

• low return rates

• consolidated shipments

• streamlined checkout processes

3. Early preparation for peak times

The following applies to the Christmas business:
The sooner shipping and warehousing have reliable processes in place, the fewer bottlenecks will occur in December.

4. Transparent communication with customers

Delivery times, countries prone to delays, customs processes and deadlines should be clearly communicated.

5. Focus on international logistics

International shipping is growing faster than the domestic market – particularly attractive when customs processes are digitized.

6. Risk management and planning

Fixed prices, digital customs clearance, clear cost forecasts and fast document creation become a competitive advantage.

Christmas 2025 – Challenges, but clear opportunities

The 2025 Christmas season will not be a record year, but a stable year with realistic growth. For retailers, e-commerce shops, and logistics providers, this means:

• Not euphoria, but solid planning.

• Not mass, but efficiency

• Not a price war, but clear performance promises

For companies like yours, the market even offers special opportunities:
Companies that intelligently combine international logistics, customs clearance and stable shipping prices can successfully stand out in a highly competitive environment.